North Korea does the same thing over and over again, year in, year out. They slide back and forth, sometimes smoothly, sometimes abruptly, between acting belligerent and bellicose, to acting reasonable and cooperative. Ish.
The Kim government has stayed in power—for decades!—by walking the line between appearing strong to their own people (to avoid internal unrest), and appearing reasonable to the outside world (to avoid external meddling… or worse).
It’s a policy that has proven to be effective in the long run. It works because—though politicians are beholden to the governed—the memories of the governed are short. All of the politicians in the dance are either acting in good faith or are sufficiently effective at pretending to do so such that even when the politicians know they’re lying to each other, they have to do it anyway because to do otherwise would appear rash and inappropriate to the governed.
What’s new this year? There’s one thing… just something fun to talk about, I guess. I’ll do that, since nothing looks significant this time around.
What is it? I’m pretty sure the only thing new this year is that Trump did something that would appear profoundly childish in any other context, but more likely condescending in this one: He presented a “movie” in which he and Kim were the stars. I don’t know if Kim felt slighted or not, but the suggestion that Kim’s ego would actually be pleased at this is… hard to swallow. I always thought that when Kim did these things, it was to bolster the fantasy image of the Kim family to the North Korean populace. For Trump to do something like that has got to be insulting. But, or course, maybe I’m being generous. Maybe Kim really has convinced himself of his magical greatness. I just don’t know.
As for the video, maybe the North Korean people will be tickled (if they ever see it).
Or, maybe Kim will look at it as an attempt by Trump to use Kim’s own tricks to try to endear Trump to the North Koreans… and so it will never be shown to them.
Or, maybe Trump was just trying to be insulting in a way that Kim wouldn’t notice. Highly childish, so I’d normally not consider it an option. But… well, these are interesting times.
If it was an insult, maybe Kim didn’t notice… or maybe he saw through it but couldn’t reasonably complain because… well, he himself does these kinds of self-aggrandizements all the time.
Or, maybe… god forbid, they both got a genuine kick out of it. Because, really, the desire to be the stars of their own stories—and everyone else’s—really is the space where these two men can find a genuine connection.
People like to categorize others and put them into bins. Phenomenal manipulators? Or, remarkable leaders with great personal strength and courage in the face of disapproving naysayers? Or, unstable, impulsive and highly-selfish children?
Judging people is fraught with error. It’s most likely that they’re a mix of all the different things they appear to be. No one is a cartoon.
At the end of the day, I like to return to an idea that I’ve become more and more comfortable with over the years: I don’t know.
I’ve got a pretty good feeling for how to judge the things that people do in a day, and that will always color my interpretations of the things those people do in the future… but I try to keep that coloring muted in all but the most egregious cases. First off, I don’t have all the things floating around in my mind that others have, so it’s likely that I will find their behavior to be unexpected, at the very least. And second… I’m absolutely floored by how bad our memories are. Their profound capacity for inaccuracy is only outshined by the absolute (and tragic) trust we have… in their accuracy!It’s a miracle we can function, sometimes. Fun fact: more than half of the people in the world (who have recollection of the event) are completely wrong about fundamental parts of their memories around 9/11. Where they were, what they were doing, etc. When presented with written evidence of our own earlier recollections, we generally respond with confusion as to why we would have written down something like that… because, “We’re sure it’s wrong, and we must’ve known that then, too!”
In the end, it is thus an act of hubris to judge the decisions of others. It’s assuming you know all that they know, and probably more… since you think “they made the wrong call.” Yes, it does happen that such judgment can be correct—people do make mistakes… and often. And they do knowingly act badly… though rarely.
But, these things are both far less common than observers passing ignorant judgment. “Monday morning quarterbacking.” It’s not just Phil Simms’s problem. If someone makes a mistake and you judge them for it, consider that the mistake they made may well not be the mistake you saw.
In other words, maybe the quarterback didn’t through the ball away because of your explanation (“He’s blind! He completely missed the wide-receiver on the left!”). Maybe his eyes are perfectly fine, and he saw the player. He just knew that the “open” player was very rarely as open as he appeared, and what he couldn’t see was that all of the blind-spots between the two of them were, in fact, empty. So, he made a split-second risk-benefit analysis, decided that 1st and 10 wasn’t the time to risk an interception, and then made the wrong call—the WR was open, after all—but for a very good reason.
Here’s where I make a plug for Walk Don’t Run: “Think slower and be less dumb!”
As you watch the blustering and promising and the occasionally subtle negotiating between Trump and Kim, remember: They’re dancing a complicated routine that they only know a small-ish part of, supported by hundreds of politicians and government employees trying to balance thousands of big and little issues, all in the face of the immense inertia of a regional balancing act that has become entrenched through ages of use.
Don’t panic. If Kim does something stupid with nukes, he’s dead and he knows it. And, if he caves and appears sufficiently weak to his people, he’s dead and he knows it. Whatever his nature may be, I think a safe judgement is that he will at least be invested in self-preservation. Plus, he’s got a pretty sweet gig going for himself: he’s the star of his story!
Would-be co-stars notwithstanding… the beat goes on.